A lesson from Serbia

As the Balkan economies struggle, the temptation for nationalist solutions will grow. Europe must take note
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Serbia's urban middle class, disillusioned by the economic failure and by a series of major corruption scandals, stayed away from the polling booths. Most striking of all was Nikolic's victory over Tadic in Belgrade, the stronghold of liberal Serbs. Now politicians outside Serbia are quietly holding their breath. Will Nikolic allow his erstwhile prejudices to spill out and unsettle regional stability?

In the immediate future, this is unlikely. The west, the US, Britain and Germany in particular put considerable diplomatic effort into persuading Nikolic to break with Seselj in the first place, arguing that unless he embraced the European Union he would always remain a marginal figure. In his first comments to the press, Nikolic stated that Germany was "Serbia's most important political ally", a particular surprise given that Angela Merkel has warned Serbia very publicly that it must soften its position on Kosovo or never achieve its overriding political goal – EU membership.
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However, Nikolic's victory, combined with the disturbing rise of populism in Hungary, Serbia's neighbour to the north, should act as a wake-up call to the EU. The eurozone crisis has witnessed a rise in nationalist and even fascist parties on most parts of the continent. With some of the highest rates of unemployment and poverty, Balkan countries are susceptible to this creeping sickness. Indeed, one could argue that it is a credit to Balkan electorates that so far they have resisted the lure of nationalism.

But as their economies sag further (as they are predicted to do), the temptation for nationalist solutions will increase. Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo and Macedonia are all still grappling with profound issues of political identity and stability which could yet turn nasty. It's another very good reason for European leaders to confront the crisis and stimulate economic growth.