Uncertain World: Will Russia Become Part of the West?
Fyodor Lukyanov

Let’s put questions of diplomatic routine aside and confront the fundamental question here: will Russia ever become part of the West? This was the dream of the first generation of Russian reformers and liberals at the dawn of the 1990s, and it was what Putin sought (in a quite different way) in the early 2000s. It is generally believed that this is and has always been Moscow’s choice. The doors are open for at least a close partnership, if not full-scale membership in the EU and NATO on the basis of common values. Debates always focused on Russia’s willingness. Can Russia truly adopt the Western worldview? Does Russia meet the high standards for membership?

But while Russia was weighing answers to these questions, the West was embarking on a surprising metamorphosis. The West has essentially begun to disappear as a coherent political entity, an ideological and moral yardstick and an economic model to emulate. And now the question is less whether the West is prepared to accept Russia with all its shortcomings, but whether Russia should enter this community of states that has failed to cope with the burden of its historic victory in the Cold War. Moreover, the center of global politics and the global economy has already shifted to Asia.

That being said, both questions should be answered in the affirmative. Russia simply has no alternative to the West. Culturally, psychologically and historically it has always been part of the Western world, despite its many unique features. Nobody in Asia thinks of Russia as an Asian power, even though three quarters of its territory are located in Asia (but three quarters of Russia’s population live in its European part). The development of the Russian Far East and Siberia, which is critical for the country, is impossible unless these regions closely integrate with the rapidly growing Asian economy. But this can only be achieved if Russia maintains and consolidates its European identity.
.....
Obstacles on the way toward integration that have been mentioned in the past 20 years are disappearing on their own. The EU, whose tough rules and standards prevented it from drawing closer to Russia, is falling apart. It will have to change drastically, revise its principles of coexistence and even its integration model. This creates an opportunity for cooperation with Russia. Previously, Moscow was merely offered the chance to adopt an enormous code of rules. This did not suit Russia, as it was used to the status of a sovereign great power.

But these are all assumptions based on the expectation that political players will follow rational considerations and act expediently. However, modern politics is full of examples of leading players making colossal blunders – either out of arrogance, complexes, dogma or misunderstanding one’s own interests.

The unpredictable, rapid changes that characterize global politics in the 21st century are accompanied by the unexpected reawakening of instincts from a distant past, in which relations between countries can backslide into old-fashioned realpolitik and considerations of prestige can override all else.

The defining characteristic of the transitional period in which we live is uncertainty. We know not where we are headed – forward, to a new political morality, or backward, to ossified principles enforced by high-tech weapons. Anything is possible at this point.